|Vol.18 No.2 Nov. 2011|
|Kah-yew Lim 林啟耀|
|Is the Central Government Performance a Candy or a Poison? Empirical Evidence of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan By-Election
This paper analyzes the extent to which performances of the central governments could shape Legislative Yuan by-election outcomes. Based on the retrospective voting theory and referendum voting theory, this research used the survey data of Taiwan’s Elections and Democratization Studies (TEDS) to explore whether one’s assessments of the central government’s performances affect his/her choice in by-elections. There are some findings from this research: first, the result showed Miaoli’s first district voters have differing voting behavior compared to voters in Taipei City’s sixth district and Yunlin’s second district. The assessment on central government performance has no significant influence on Miaoli’s voters voting behavior; second, for the voters in Taipei City sixth district and Yunlin second district, the assessment of the central government performance have mixed effects due to the election context. As a result, we may conclude that the by-elections in Taipei City sixth district and Yunlin second district can be regarded as referenda on the central government, but the by-election in Miaoli’s first district was different from the others.
Keywords: referendum theory, by-election, assessment of government performance, voting behavior